Ukraine's Unmanned Systems Forces struck seven vessels belonging to Russia's so-called shadow fleet in the Azov and Black Seas, the military announced. The strikes also targeted air defense systems and energy infrastructure in occupied Crimea. The attacks come as a betting market puts the odds of Vladimir Putin leaving office by June 2027 at just 16.5%.
Shadow Fleet Under Fire
The seven vessels were part of a maritime network Moscow uses to evade international sanctions on oil exports. Ukraine's drone boats and loitering munitions hit the ships in multiple coordinated strikes. The Unmanned Systems Forces, a relatively new branch of the Ukrainian military, has made disrupting Russia's logistics a priority. The shadow fleet has become a key target, as it allows Russia to keep selling crude despite Western price caps.
Crimea and Energy Infrastructure
In addition to the naval strikes, Ukrainian forces hit air defense systems and energy sites. Crimea, the peninsula Russia annexed in 2014, has long been a staging ground for attacks on Ukraine's power grid. By striking energy infrastructure there, Kyiv aims to degrade Russia's ability to sustain its war effort. The air defense systems targeted were likely protecting supply routes and command centers. No casualty figures were released.
Prediction Market Odds on Putin's Exit
On the crypto-based prediction platform Polymarket, traders currently see a 16.5% probability that Putin will leave office before June 2027. The contract does not specify how—whether by resignation, election, or other means. The low odds suggest bettors expect Putin to remain in power for the foreseeable future, despite the war's toll on Russia's economy and military. The market has fluctuated since the invasion began, but has never gone above 30%.
Ukraine's strikes and the Polymarket number both reflect the grinding nature of the conflict. The shadow fleet attacks are part of a broader campaign to choke off Russia's revenue. Russia has not commented on the damage to the vessels or the energy sites.
