US airstrikes against Iran have entered their eighth consecutive night, following the killing of American service members in Jordan. The ongoing military campaign targets Iran-linked groups in the region. Meanwhile, a prediction market has placed a 10.5% probability on the Iranian regime falling by the end of 2026.
Why the strikes continue
The strikes began after a drone attack on a US base in Jordan killed three American service members and wounded dozens more. Washington blamed Iran-backed militias for the attack and vowed a sustained response. The eighth night of airstrikes suggests the US is not limiting its retaliation to a single wave of strikes.
The scope of the campaign
The US military has not disclosed specific targets or the number of strikes conducted over the eight nights. But the campaign has focused on facilities used by Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and allied militias in Iraq and Syria. The strikes have hit weapons storage sites, command centers, and logistics hubs, according to US officials.
Prediction market odds
A prediction market, where traders bet on future events, currently shows a 10.5% likelihood that the Iranian regime will fall by the end of 2026. The odds reflect a low but not negligible chance of regime change, driven by internal unrest and external pressure. The market has seen slight fluctuations since the airstrikes began, but the probability remains in the single digits.
The figure is based on trading activity and is not a formal forecast. Prediction markets have been used to gauge sentiment on geopolitical events, though their accuracy varies.
What comes next
The US has not announced a timeline for ending the airstrikes. The White House has said the campaign will continue as long as necessary to deter further attacks. Iran has threatened retaliation, raising the risk of a broader conflict. The eighth night of strikes shows no sign of a pause, and the prediction market's 10.5% probability of regime change remains a distant but watched number.
