US airstrikes hit Iranian Revolutionary Guard facilities for the sixth straight night, extending a campaign that shows no sign of slowing. The strikes come as the International Atomic Energy Agency has scheduled visits to Iranian nuclear sites by December 31, though prediction markets give only a 26.5% probability those visits will actually happen.
Sixth Night of Strikes
The latest round of US airstrikes targeted facilities linked to Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. Officials have not disclosed specific damage assessments or the exact locations hit. The strikes are part of a sustained operation that began nearly a week ago. Each night, US forces have struck what they describe as military infrastructure used by the Guard. The frequency suggests a deliberate strategy to degrade Iran's ability to project force in the region.
Iran has not publicly confirmed the extent of the damage. The Revolutionary Guard has vowed retaliation, but so far no major response has materialized. The US military has maintained a heightened alert posture across the Middle East.
IAEA Visits in Question
The IAEA has scheduled inspections at Iranian nuclear sites, with a deadline of December 31. The agency wants access to facilities that could be used for weapons-related activities. Iran has previously restricted some IAEA access, and the outcome of these visits remains uncertain.
The scheduled visits are part of ongoing efforts to monitor Iran's nuclear program. The IAEA has reported that Iran has enriched uranium to levels beyond the limits set by the 2015 nuclear deal, which the US withdrew from in 2018. Iran has also blocked some IAEA monitoring equipment and denied access to certain sites.
What the Prediction Markets Say
Prediction markets, which aggregate bets on future events, currently put the chance of IAEA visits occurring by December 31 at just 26.5%. That number reflects widespread skepticism that Iran will allow unfettered access. The low probability also suggests traders expect further diplomatic wrangling or a breakdown in talks.
Prediction markets are not always accurate, but they offer a real-time gauge of expectations. The 26.5% figure is down from higher levels earlier this year, indicating growing pessimism about a diplomatic resolution.
The combination of ongoing US airstrikes and the uncertain IAEA timeline creates a volatile situation. Iran has accused the US of escalating tensions, while Washington says the strikes are necessary to protect American forces and allies.
The December 31 deadline is now less than two weeks away. Whether the IAEA will gain access to Iran's nuclear sites remains an open question.
