The US House of Representatives passed the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) on Thursday, including provisions that strengthen defense cooperation between the United States and Israel. The move comes as a prediction market shows a 14% probability of Houthi military action against Israel by July 31, 2026.
What the NDAA includes for Israel
The NDAA, which sets annual defense policy and spending, contains language aimed at deepening the US-Israel security partnership. Lawmakers added provisions that enhance joint military exercises, intelligence sharing, and technology development. The exact details of the cooperation measures were not disclosed in the final bill text, but supporters said they would help Israel maintain its qualitative military edge in the region.
The bill passed with bipartisan support, though a handful of members voted against it over unrelated provisions. It now heads to the Senate, where it is expected to face debate on several amendments.
The Houthi threat assessment
Separately, a prediction market run by the forecasting platform Metaculus gives a 14% chance that Houthi forces in Yemen will launch a military attack against Israel by the end of July 2026. The market, which aggregates user predictions, has been tracking the risk since early this year. The Houthis, an Iran-backed group that controls much of northern Yemen, have previously fired missiles and drones at Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. They have also threatened Israel during the current conflict in Gaza.
The 14% figure is not a forecast from official intelligence agencies but reflects the collective judgment of thousands of traders on the platform. Such markets have been used to gauge probabilities for geopolitical events, though their accuracy varies.
Why the timing matters
The NDAA's Israel provisions are not directly tied to the Houthi threat, but they come as the US and Israel face a range of security challenges across the Middle East. The Houthis have stepped up rhetoric against Israel since the war in Gaza began, and US officials have expressed concern about the group's growing arsenal of ballistic missiles and drones.
Defense analysts note that the enhanced cooperation could help Israel prepare for potential attacks from multiple directions, including from Yemen. The provisions in the NDAA are designed to be implemented over the next fiscal year, with funding allocated for joint programs.
The bill also includes broader measures to counter Iran's influence in the region, which directly affects both Israel and the Houthis, given Tehran's support for the group.
What happens next
The Senate is expected to take up the NDAA in the coming weeks. Lawmakers will debate amendments, including some that could alter the Israel-related provisions. The final version must be reconciled between the House and Senate before it goes to the president for signature.
On the prediction market, the 14% probability will update as new information emerges. Traders will watch for any escalation in Houthi rhetoric or military activity, as well as diplomatic efforts to de-escalate tensions.
