The United States has imposed new sanctions on Iranian financier Babak Zanjani and his network, tightening financial pressure on Tehran. The move comes as prediction markets show a 5.7% probability that Iran will develop a nuclear weapon before 2027.
Who’s targeted
The sanctions block Zanjani and associated entities from the U.S. financial system. The Treasury did not specify the exact number of individuals or companies hit by the new measures, but the action targets what the agency described as a network used to evade existing restrictions.
Nuclear odds on the market
A prediction market that tracks the likelihood of Iran acquiring a nuclear weapon in the next few years currently puts the chance at just under 6%. The figure sits above zero but well below the threshold that would signal a near-term breakthrough.
The 5.7% probability reflects trading based on whether Iran will test or deploy a nuclear device before January 1, 2027. Such markets are often used by analysts and traders to gauge geopolitical risk, but they are not official assessments.
Zanjani has been a central figure in Iranian sanctions evasion efforts for years. The new restrictions are the latest in a long line of U.S. attempts to cut off funding for Iran’s nuclear program. Whether the sanctions will significantly alter that probability remains an open question — but for now, the markets see the odds as low.
