The US and Iran both stopped strikes this weekend, ending 13 consecutive nights of American bombing. The US paused airstrikes on Friday; Iran confirmed Sunday it had halted retaliatory operations. Brent crude fell about 4% Friday to roughly $96.7 — its first close below $100 since May. Bitcoin traded near $64,463 on Sunday, up 0.7% over 24 hours, and the top 10 digital assets posted modest gains. Total crypto market cap reached $2.29 trillion, up 0.84%.
Why the pause matters for crypto
Oil sets direction for risk assets. Higher crude lifts inflation expectations, which shapes Federal Reserve policy. With Brent back below $100, the immediate inflation scare eases — but only if the pause holds. Crypto absorbed the weekend headlines alone; equity and oil markets were closed when the strikes stopped. Monday's first prints will carry three days of news.
What the pause actually is
This is a pause, not a formal ceasefire. The New York Times reported that President Trump shelved plans for a broader campaign due to dwindling US air defense supplies. Gen. Dan Caine had flagged concerns about munitions stockpiles. US Central Command confirmed its naval blockade of Iranian ports remains in place. As of July 25, CENTCOM redirected 12 commercial vessels trying to run the blockade, disabled 2 that didn't comply, and boarded 2 to ensure compliance. Iran's Army spokesman Amir Akraminia said the country has halted retaliatory operations, but the blockade is still squeezing trade.
What traders are watching Monday
Oil futures open first. If crude stays below $100, risk assets including crypto could see a relief rally. But the Houthi attacks in the Red Sea remain a second source of pressure on crude; the June ceasefire has not returned and traffic through the strait remains halted. Analyst Michael Singh of the Washington Institute for Near East Policy said: 'If it turns into a multiday pause, that’ll be something significant.' For now, the market is pricing a fragile calm — and waiting to see if it lasts past Monday.
