The United States lifted its blockade of Iran on June 18, clearing the way for oil tankers to again move through the Strait of Hormuz. The move follows a tentative war-ending deal between Washington and Tehran, though no formal meeting has been scheduled before a fast-approaching deadline.
Blockade ends after months of tension
For weeks, US naval forces had blocked Iranian ports and shipping lanes in an effort to choke off oil exports. The blockade, imposed amid escalating hostilities, had halted nearly all commercial tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz – a chokepoint for about a fifth of the world’s petroleum. With the lifting, vessels began resuming normal passage on June 18, according to shipping data.
What the tentative deal covers
The accord, described as a war-ending framework, is still taking shape. Neither side has released a full text of the agreement. The deal appears to pause direct military action and restore some diplomatic channels. But key details – including the scope of sanctions relief and Iran’s nuclear activity – remain undisclosed. A formal meeting between US and Iranian officials is expected, but no date has been set.
Betting markets bet on no meeting before June 30
Polymarket, a prediction-market platform, puts the odds at 40% that no US-Iran meeting will take place by June 30. That leaves a narrow window for the two governments to sit down face-to-face. If they don’t, the tentative deal could fray. The 40% probability suggests traders see a real chance of delay or breakdown, even after the blockade was lifted.
The next few days will be crucial. Tankers are moving again, oil prices have eased slightly, and the immediate crisis has de-escalated. But the underlying distrust between Washington and Tehran hasn’t vanished – and without a scheduled summit before the end of the month, the fragile peace might not hold.
