The U.S. military has drawn up plans to seize Iran’s Kharg Island, a move that would target the country’s main oil export terminal. But the operation is already drawing sharp skepticism from analysts who compare it to the disastrous Gallipoli campaign of World War I. A prediction market puts the odds of the U.S. controlling the island by July 31 at just 2.6%.
Why Kharg Island Matters
Kharg Island sits in the Persian Gulf and handles roughly 90% of Iran’s crude oil exports. Taking it would cut off a major revenue stream for Tehran and give Washington enormous leverage. The military plans reportedly involve a complex amphibious assault against a heavily fortified target. Iran has spent years building up defenses on the island—anti-ship missiles, coastal artillery, and naval mines. Any attack would require neutralizing those threats while also fending off Iranian drones and fast-attack boats.
The Gallipoli Comparison
Analysts studying the plans have reached for one of history’s most cautionary tales: the Gallipoli campaign. In 1915, Allied forces tried to seize the Dardanelles strait from the Ottoman Empire. The operation bogged down, troops were pinned on beaches, and casualties mounted. The Allies eventually withdrew. The parallel is not exact—modern military technology is different—but the core problem is the same. An amphibious assault on a defended coastline is among the hardest military operations to pull off. The defenders know the terrain, they have prepared kill zones, and the attacker must land into a funnel of fire.
What the Prediction Market Says
Prediction markets aggregate bets on real-world outcomes, and the one tracking Kharg Island is not bullish. The 2.6% probability reflects a view that the U.S. either will not attempt the seizure or will fail to hold the island by the end of July. That number has moved little in recent weeks, suggesting traders see the plan as more of a contingency than a serious near-term option. The market does not rule out a strike on the island, but it does not expect a lasting occupation.
Unanswered Questions
The military has not publicly acknowledged the plans, and it is unclear whether the White House has signed off. Taking Kharg Island would almost certainly escalate into a broader conflict with Iran, potentially drawing in proxies in Iraq, Yemen, and Lebanon. It would also disrupt global oil markets—something the Biden administration has tried to avoid. The next real test may come in the form of a formal review or a Pentagon briefing. Until then, the plan stays on paper, and the odds stay low.
