The United States has released footage from the 13th night of its ongoing strikes against Iranian targets, offering a rare glimpse into the military campaign. The video, made public by the Pentagon, shows precision airstrikes on what officials described as weapons storage facilities and command-and-control nodes linked to Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. The release comes amid heightened tensions in the region, with no official comment from Tehran on the latest footage.
Prediction Markets Show Rising Odds of Iranian Action Against a Gulf State
Meanwhile, prediction markets are signaling an increased probability of Iranian military action against a Gulf state. On July 30, the market assigned a 44.5% chance to such an event, rising to 47.5% on July 31. The contracts, traded on platforms like Polymarket, ask whether Iran will conduct a military operation against a Gulf Cooperation Council member before the end of the year. The uptick suggests traders see the risk as real, though still below even odds.
The Gulf state in question is not named in the market's description, but analysts point to Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates, or Saudi Arabia as potential targets given their proximity to Iran and their hosting of U.S. military bases. The U.S. has not publicly confirmed any specific intelligence about an imminent Iranian attack on a Gulf partner.
What the Footage Shows
The released footage, lasting roughly 90 seconds, depicts multiple precision-guided munitions striking what the U.S. Central Command described as Iranian-linked facilities. The strikes were part of a broader campaign that began after a drone attack on a U.S. outpost in Jordan killed three American soldiers in late January. The 13th night of strikes, which occurred earlier this week, targeted sites in Iraq and Syria, according to Pentagon briefings. No civilian casualties have been reported, though local officials in both countries have disputed that claim.
The video release is unusual. The U.S. military typically does not publicize operational footage in such detail, but officials said the goal was to demonstrate the precision and scope of the campaign. The strikes have drawn criticism from Iraqi and Syrian governments, who say they violate national sovereignty.
Market Mechanics and Interpretation
Prediction markets allow users to buy and sell contracts on binary outcomes. The prices quoted—44.5% and 47.5%—represent the market's implied probability that the event will occur. These markets have gained attention in recent years for their ability to aggregate dispersed information, though they are not always accurate. The specific contract referenced is titled “Iran military action against a Gulf state in 2024” and is traded on a decentralized platform.
The slight increase from July 30 to July 31 could reflect new information, such as the U.S. footage release or diplomatic signals, but the market itself does not specify the cause. The U.S. has repeatedly warned Iran against further escalation, while Iran has threatened retaliation for the strikes on its assets.
No Gulf state has publicly reported any unusual military activity from Iran in the past 48 hours. The Pentagon declined to comment on the market data when asked.
