The United States has slapped sanctions on the network of Iranian financier Babak Zanjani, a move that comes as former President Donald Trump continues to threaten Tehran. The action targets individuals and entities linked to the already-blacklisted businessman, who has been accused of helping Iran evade oil sanctions in the past.
Washington gave no immediate details on the exact members of the network hit by the new penalties. But the move signals that the U.S. is keeping up economic pressure on Iran even as diplomatic channels remain open — or closed. A prediction market tracking the odds of a final nuclear deal now puts the probability at just 1.8% by August 13, 2026.
Who is Babak Zanjani?
Babak Zanjani is no stranger to U.S. sanctions. The Treasury first blacklisted him a decade ago for helping Iran sell oil and transfer money despite international restrictions. At the time, he was described as one of Iran's wealthiest men, with a network stretching across the Middle East, Europe, and Asia. He was later convicted in Iran on corruption charges and sentenced to death, though that sentence was not carried out.
The new sanctions expand the dragnet to associates and front companies that Zanjani allegedly still uses to move money for Iran's oil ministry and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. The U.S. government says these entities help Iran bypass sanctions and generate revenue that can be used to fund destabilizing activities.
Low odds for a nuclear deal
The timing of the sanctions underscores the fragility of any diplomatic path. The prediction market — which aggregates bets from traders on political outcomes — suggests that a comprehensive nuclear agreement before mid-2026 is a long shot. The 1.8% figure is a stark contrast to the optimism that briefly followed the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action.
Talks between Iran and world powers have been stalled for months. Iran has continued to enrich uranium at near-weapons-grade levels, while the U.S. has maintained a maximum-pressure policy. Trump, who pulled the U.S. out of the original deal in 2018, has publicly threatened to take further action against Iran if he returns to office.
Threats from a former president
Trump's threats have added another layer of uncertainty. Though he is no longer in office, his statements still carry weight in Tehran and among European allies trying to revive the nuclear talks. The former president has said he would “bomb the hell out of” Iran if it crossed certain lines, and has urged the current administration to get tougher.
The Biden administration, for its part, has tried to keep diplomacy alive while enforcing existing sanctions. But the new Zanjani action suggests the White House sees little near-term chance of a breakthrough. It's a bet that matches the prediction market's numbers: don't expect a deal soon.
What the sanctions mean
For Zanjani's network, the sanctions freeze any U.S.-based assets and bar Americans from doing business with them. Foreign companies and individuals that deal with the sanctioned entities also risk being cut off from the U.S. financial system. It's a sharp reminder that Washington can still reach deep into global finance.
But the practical impact may be limited. Zanjani has been under sanctions for years, and his network is used to operating in the shadows. The real question is whether the new designations will choke off enough revenue to force Iran back to the negotiating table — or whether they'll simply harden Tehran's position.
No new talks have been scheduled. The next concrete date to watch is August 13, 2026 — the prediction market's deadline — but by then, the political landscape in both Washington and Tehran could look very different.
