Nine U.S. senators have asked the Commodity Futures Trading Commission to block contracts that let people bet on the duration, growth, and destruction of wildfires. The lawmakers say state and local fire officials worry such prediction markets could encourage arson.
The senators' concerns
In a letter sent this week, the bipartisan group warned that contracts tied to wildfire outcomes create a financial incentive to set fires. They pointed to feedback from firefighting agencies that see a direct risk: someone could profit by betting on a fire's spread after starting it. The senators did not name specific contracts but urged the CFTC to use its authority to prohibit any that involve wildfire metrics.
“These contracts would allow individuals to profit from the destruction of lives, property, and natural resources,” the letter states. The lawmakers argue that prediction markets should not treat natural disasters as gambling opportunities. They want the CFTC to act before any such products reach the market.
Polymarket's response
Polymarket, a decentralized prediction platform, pushed back. The company said removing wildfire contracts would make timely information harder to get. “Prediction markets provide real-time data that can help officials and the public understand risks,” a Polymarket representative said. The platform argues that banning these contracts cuts off a useful tool for forecasting and awareness.
Polymarket has hosted contracts on everything from election outcomes to weather events. Wildfire-related bets have appeared on the site before, but the company says they are designed to aggregate knowledge, not to encourage crime. The senators are not convinced.
What's at stake
The CFTC has broad power to police event contracts under the Commodity Exchange Act. It has previously blocked or allowed contracts on political outcomes, disease outbreaks, and even terrorist attacks. Wildfire contracts would be a new frontier. The commission must weigh free-market information against the risk of manipulation or harm.
Fire season is getting longer and more destructive across the western U.S. The senators argue that adding a betting layer only compounds the danger. They want the CFTC to treat wildfire contracts like those tied to terrorism or assassination — banned outright.
The letter is now before the CFTC. The commission has not yet announced whether it will take up the request.
