The United States is preparing to announce an agreement that would allow Saudi Arabia to develop a civilian nuclear program. The deal, which has been in the works for months, still requires review by the US Congress before it can take effect. Separately, prediction markets give a 3.7% probability of a final deal between the US and Iran by August 13, 2026.
What the Deal Covers
The agreement would permit Saudi Arabia to pursue nuclear energy development, including enrichment and reprocessing capabilities, under US oversight. The exact terms have not been made public, but the deal is expected to include safeguards to prevent the program from being used for military purposes. The announcement is expected soon, though no specific date has been given.
Congressional Review Process
Under US law, any civilian nuclear cooperation agreement must be submitted to Congress for a 90-day review period. Lawmakers can block the deal by passing a joint resolution of disapproval. The Biden administration has been consulting with key members of Congress ahead of the formal submission, but the outcome of the review remains uncertain. Some lawmakers have expressed concerns about setting a precedent in the Middle East, while others see it as a way to counter Iranian influence.
Prediction Market Odds for an Iran Deal
On prediction platforms, traders are betting against a final US-Iran nuclear deal by mid-2026. The current implied probability stands at just 3.7%, reflecting widespread skepticism that negotiations will succeed. The US and Iran have been engaged in indirect talks, but no breakthrough has been reported. The Saudi deal could complicate those efforts, as Riyadh has long sought a parallel arrangement.
The congressional review timeline is not yet set, but the prediction market suggests a US-Iran deal remains a long shot in the near term.
