World Cup betting on prediction markets surged to an unprecedented $20 billion in total volume during the tournament, according to data from major platforms. The sum dwarfs previous records and underscores the growing appetite for event-based wagering beyond traditional sportsbooks.
The $20 billion milestone
The figure covers all World Cup-related contracts traded on platforms such as Polymarket and others. That includes bets on match outcomes, goal totals, and more exotic propositions. The previous high for a single sporting event was around $1 billion, making this a twentyfold leap.
The Ronaldo tear market
One of the most talked-about markets asked: Would Cristiano Ronaldo cry when Portugal was eliminated? The Portuguese star was visibly emotional after the quarterfinal loss to Morocco, and the market resolved “Yes.” Traders who bet on the tear paid out accordingly. The contract alone saw millions in volume, though exact figures weren’t disclosed.
What’s next for prediction markets
The World Cup surge has drawn attention from regulators and lawmakers. Several U.S. states are considering whether to classify these contracts as gambling or as legitimate hedging tools. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission has yet to issue formal guidance on sports-event prediction markets. Meanwhile, platforms are preparing for the next big event: the 2026 World Cup, which will be co-hosted by the U.S., Canada, and Mexico. Organizers expect even higher volumes.
