Roughly 11 days into the tournament, bettors have poured $5.4 billion into World Cup prediction markets. Kalshi accounts for $2.9 billion of that total, while Polymarket has drawn $2.5 billion since last July. The numbers underscore just how fast these platforms have become a go‑to for fans who want to put money behind their forecasts.
Kalshi’s $2.9 billion lead
Kalshi, the regulated prediction exchange, has captured the majority of wagers so far. Its $2.9 billion in World Cup action dwarfs what most single‑event betting pools ever see. The platform offers contracts on match winners, tournament outcomes, and even goal totals — and traders have responded. Kalshi’s volume reflects a steady stream of small and large bets, not a few whale accounts.
Polymarket’s $2.5 billion — and Spain at 50%
Polymarket, the crypto‑based prediction market, has seen $2.5 billion in World Cup wagers since July. That’s a huge number for a platform that operates entirely on blockchain. One notable line: Polymarket keeps Spain flagged as an “Other” team with a 50% probability in the title betting. That means the market sees Spain as a coin‑flip to win it all — or at least as the highest single probability for any team not named Spain. The “Other” category usually lumps together all remaining teams, so a 50% share suggests Polymarket’s traders think the winner will come from that group, rather than from a shortlist of favorites.
Where the money goes
The $5.4 billion total spans dozens of contracts on both platforms. Match‑by‑match wagers, group‑stage qualifiers, and outright winner bets all feed the pool. Kalshi’s regulated status may attract users who want U.S.‑style oversight; Polymarket’s pseudonymous, permissionless design draws a different crowd. Together they’ve turned the World Cup into a multi‑billion‑dollar data set on public sentiment.
The tournament still has weeks to go. More games mean more bets — and the $5.4 billion figure will almost certainly rise. Whether Spain’s 50% “Other” line holds, or whether a clear favorite emerges, is the open question that traders will answer in real time.
