Bitcoin

Geopolitical de-escalation typically supports risk-on assets by lowering uncertainty premiums. However, the crypto market is currently driven by macro headwinds (inflation, regulatory uncertainty) and extreme fear (Fear & Greed 23). A confirmed deal could provide a short-term sentiment boost, but the structural bearish macro backdrop limits upside. The deal also shifts focus to nuclear talks, which may reintroduce sanctions-related volatility later.

US and Iran reach tentative deal to extend ceasefire and launch nuclear programme talks, pending approval from leaders.