Matt Dines: Rising Dollar Plus Rising Bitcoin Is the Bullish Signal to Watch

Dollar Index Holds Near 18-Month High as Fed Decision Nears

This is not an isolated event—it compounds a broader trend of rising European political uncertainty (France's hung parliament, Germany's coalition strains) that threatens fiscal consolidation and could delay EU-wide investment. In a world where the dollar is already buoyed by higher-for-longer Fed expectations, euro weakness reinforces dollar strength, which historically acts as a headwind for risk assets like crypto.

Euro

The euro fell to its weakest level since May 2025 amid reports that Spanish government officials are preparing for an early election, adding to investor concerns over political and fiscal risks in the region.

Euro Slides to Weakest Level Since May 2025 on Spain Snap Election Reports

Spain's snap election could trigger a 'political risk premium' rotation from EUR to crypto, but not the majors—watch for surge in euro-denominated stablecoin inflows.