China’s Oil Imports May Never Recover as Iran War Reshapes Energy Strategy

German Investor Optimism Rises as Hopes Grow for End to Iran War

Trump Signs Preliminary Deal to End Iran War; Details Remain Unclear

Mojtaba Khamenei to Address Iran on US Memorandum to End War

US Gasoline Price Drops Below $4 for First Time Since Early Iran War

Pentagon Requests $80 Billion for Iran War, Fueling Bitcoin's Deficit Narrative

Trump Signs Memorandum to End Iran War, White House Official Says

Oil Prices Dip Below $80 for First Time Since Iran War Began

Oil Prices Stabilize, Bitcoin Hash Rate Rebounds as Markets Absorb Iran War Shock

Bank of Japan Hikes Rates to 31-Year High, Threatens Yen Carry Trade and Crypto

Standard Chartered Declares Crypto Winter Over as Key Overhangs Lift

China Bonds Gain Safe-Haven Status as Iran War Rattles Markets

Bitcoin

This is not a repeat of past Gulf skirmishes—it is a multi-month blockade against the world's most critical energy chokepoint, affecting 20% of global oil supply. The resulting energy crisis will force central banks to choose between fighting inflation (rate hikes) or averting recession (accommodation), creating a stagflationary environment that historically crushes equities and crypto alike in the near term.

US and Israel started a war against Iran in late February, leading to the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz for over three months.

Strait of Hormuz Closure Enters Fourth Month, Crypto Market Braces for Energy Shock

The Hormuz closure could force energy trade into crypto settlement, boosting stablecoin demand and Bitcoin as a neutral reserve asset.

Bank of Canada Holds Rate at 2.25%, Cites US Trade and Iran War Risks

India Freezes Starlink Approvals Over Iran War Concerns

Geopolitical clarity around the Middle East is generally a neutral factor for risk assets, but the lack of substantive policy change or escalation means this event carries zero marginal impact on crypto demand. With the market already pricing in extreme fear and a 10% weekly drop in BTC, traders are focused on macro liquidity and regulatory headlines, not diplomatic nuances.

In a call with BBC's Sarah Smith, Trump stated that Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu did not defy him, discussing the war in Iran.

Trump's Netanyahu Clarification Fails to Move Crypto Markets as Bitcoin Holds $62K

Trump’s Tepid Iran Statement Could Break Bitcoin’s Inverse Correlation With Gold, Creating Arbitrage In Safe-Haven Assets

The market is pricing in 'perpetual war' as a structural feature rather than a temporary shock, shifting focus to monetary policy. With 7d BTC down 14.64% despite the conflict, macro drivers like Fed rate decisions now dominate over geopolitics. This reflects a maturing market where crypto is no longer treated as a pure geopolitical hedge but as a risk asset correlated to liquidity conditions.

Reuters published an article about US troops and families adjusting to a new normal of war with Iran.

‘New Normal’ of Iran War Fails to Spark Crypto Rally as Markets Eye Treasury Sanctions Deadline

War normalization accelerates 'digital gold' narrative as military families quietly adopt Bitcoin for cross-border remittances amid banking restrictions

House Votes to End Iran War Authorization in Bipartisan Rebuke of Trump

Marco Rubio Declares Iran War Over, Cites Operation Epic Fury Victory

This event is part of a larger pattern where geopolitical shocks (Iran conflict) are pushing up borrowing costs for emerging economies, forcing unconventional funding. For crypto, which increasingly correlates with risk assets, such sovereign stress can trigger capital flight to dollar-based safe havens or gold, while Bitcoin's 'digital gold' narrative is still being tested. If emerging-market distress broadens, it could lead to a liquidity crunch that spills into crypto via reduced retail participation and institutional risk-parity unwinds.

Thailand plans to raise approximately $5 billion through promissory notes and term loans to fund living cost relief measures, avoiding bond issuance due to soaring sovereign yields.

Thailand’s $5B Off-Market Borrowing May Squeeze Fiat On-Ramps for Crypto Traders

Thailand's $5B off-market borrowing siphons baht liquidity from local banking system, potentially hampering fiat on-ramps for Thai crypto investors.

Oil Prices Surge as Strait of Hormuz Crisis Disrupts Global Supply

EU Weighs Freezing Russian Oil Price Cap as Iran Conflict Roils Markets

Bond yields are the global benchmark for risk-free returns; persistently high yields drain liquidity from speculative assets like crypto. The fact that strategists point to structural drivers (e.g., US fiscal deficits, term premium expansion) means even a ceasefire won't trigger a dovish pivot, keeping real rates elevated and suppressing crypto valuations.

Bonds

Bond strategists warn that yields will stay high even if the Iran war ends, citing other drivers affecting longer-term borrowing costs.

Bond Strategists Warn Yields Will Stay High Even After Iran War Ends

Bond yields staying high despite war ending is actually bullish for Bitcoin as a store of value.

This report signals that prolonged geopolitical conflict is structurally increasing the US fiscal burden, which historically leads to either higher real rates (bearish for crypto) or eventual monetary accommodation (bullish for hard assets). The market is currently pricing the former, as seen in the 7-day BTC decline of -3.61% and low volume. However, if the conflict persists, the latter scenario becomes more likely as the Fed may be forced to cap yields, weakening the dollar.

Report indicates that the Iran war could add billions of dollars in interest payments to US debt, with government borrowing costs reaching their highest levels since 2007 after three months of conflict.

US Borrowing Costs Hit 2007 Highs as Iran War Stretches Into Third Month

Rising US debt costs from Iran war will accelerate Bitcoin adoption as a hedge against sovereign credit risk, not hurt it.

For months, the war has choked energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz, fueling inflation fears and risk-off sentiment. This shipment suggests that key buyers like India are still being supplied discreetly, which could stabilize energy markets and lower the geopolitical risk premium. If this trend continues, it may ease pressure on central banks to keep rates high, indirectly supporting liquidity-sensitive assets like crypto.

A liquefied natural gas tanker carrying a shipment for India exited the Strait of Hormuz for the first time since the Iran war began.

First LNG Tanker Since Iran War Clears Strait of Hormuz, Putting Bitcoin's Geopolitical Premium at Risk

First LNG Tanker Through Strait of Hormuz Since Iran War Begins Undermines Bitcoin's Geopolitical Hedge Narrative, Could Trigger Sell-Off

ECB Warns Iran War Could Fuel Eurozone Inflation, Complicate Policy

CEO Confidence Slips as Iran Conflict Drags On, Raising Market Risk

This event occurs during a period of extreme fear (Fear & Greed 22) and a 3.23% BTC 24h drop, suggesting macro fears dominate. While Iran's internet shutdown was a geopolitical risk factor, its end may signal de-escalation, but the market is pricing in broader recession and regulatory concerns. The restoration underscores crypto's role as a financial lifeline in sanctioned regimes, yet the actual market impact is likely muted given Iran's ~7-10% global hash rate share.

The Iranian government ended the internet shutdown that was imposed after the start of the war with the US and Israel in February.

Iran Ends Internet Shutdown, Reconnecting Crypto Miners and Traders

Iran's Internet Restoration Could Trigger Sell-Off in Privacy Coins and DEX Tokens as Crisis Use Case Fades

Iran War Strains Gulf Finances, Threatens Crypto Investment Pipeline

The Iran war attribution adds a geopolitical risk premium to energy markets, which historically correlates with risk-off moves across global asset classes. Combined with extreme fear (F&G 25) and high BTC dominance, this event could accelerate capital rotation out of altcoins into perceived safe-havens like BTC or even out of crypto entirely into cash or commodities.

Ofgem announces that the energy price cap will increase in July, raising household bills by £221 per year due to Iran war impact.