Geopolitical risk has been a persistent factor since 2022, but crypto markets have increasingly decoupled from traditional war headlines, focusing instead on macro factors like Fed policy and liquidity. The extreme fear sentiment (F&G 25) already prices in considerable uncertainty, limiting further downside from isolated events.

A strike in Luhansk, Russian-occupied eastern Ukraine, killed 18 people and injured 42 others, prompting Russian accusations and a vow to retaliate.