Bitcoin

Crypto markets are currently driven by macro factors like Fed policy and liquidity, but geopolitical risk events can act as secondary catalysts. A credible disarmament plan, even if uncertain, reduces the probability of a wider regional conflict that could spike oil prices and fuel inflation, indirectly supporting risk assets. However, the plan's obstacles mean the market will likely price in a low probability of near-term success, limiting any sustained rally.

A plan for Hamas to disarm faces significant obstacles but offers rare hope for Gaza.