The US-led AI boom is propping up American economic growth even as an energy crunch and renewed trade tensions weigh on the rest of the world. ING estimates the technology sector now accounts for about a third of recent US expansion, a concentration that's keeping risk appetite alive but also creating new pressures for crypto miners competing for the same electricity.
The AI growth engine
Growth is holding up despite the headwinds. ING's math puts AI's contribution at roughly a third of recent US GDP gains, a striking figure for a single sector. The boom is broad enough to offset the drag from higher energy prices and geopolitical friction, at least for now.
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That resilience is one reason risk assets, including crypto, have found support. But it also means the US economy is leaning harder on one industry than it has in decades.
For crypto, the AI boom cuts both ways. On the one hand, a strong US economy keeps the door open for risk-on flows into digital assets. On the other, the same boom is a direct competitor for power. AI data centers are gobbling up electricity, and that's pushing up prices in regions where miners operate.
Miners are already feeling the pinch. As AI expands, it bids up the cost of power, squeezing margins that were already thin. Some operations may be forced to consolidate or relocate to cheaper energy regions, which could shift the geography of hashing power and affect network security.
The power squeeze on miners
The energy crunch isn't just a macro headwind; it's a micro cost driver for miners. Every megawatt that goes to an AI data center is a megawatt that isn't available for a mining rig. In places like Texas, where both industries are growing, the competition is real.
This isn't a hypothetical. The trend is already visible in rising industrial electricity rates and in the scramble for long-term power contracts. Miners that locked in cheap power early have an edge; those that didn't are exposed.
Concentration risk
The bigger worry is what happens if the AI bubble bursts. If investment stalls or the sector stumbles, the US economy could contract sharply, triggering a risk-off move that hits all assets, including crypto. That's the flip side of the concentration: the same engine driving growth could become the source of a sharp correction.
There's also an inflationary angle. AI's massive capex and energy demand are feeding into price pressures, which could keep the Fed on a higher-for-longer rate path. That's a headwind for crypto, which typically thrives in low-rate environments.
For now, the market is treating AI as a net positive. But the risks are building. Traders will be watching AI earnings and energy prices for signs of strain, and any wobble in either could hit crypto fast.
