Anthropic's confidential IPO filing from June is moving toward a public debut, with executives meeting prospective investors for a listing that could land in September or early October, according to The Wall Street Journal. Prediction market traders now see a 70% chance of an October IPO, up sharply in recent sessions.
Betting on a Fall Debut
On Polymarket, the probability of Anthropic going public by October 31 has risen to 70%, a jump from just a few weeks ago. The market gives the company a 10% chance of listing by September 30 and a slim 2% shot by September 15. Looking further out, traders place an 83% probability on an IPO before the end of 2026.
The shift reflects growing confidence that Anthropic will move quickly after months of preparation. The company confidentially filed with U.S. regulators in June, a standard step that often precedes a public offering within a few months.
A $2 Trillion Price Tag
Some investors are targeting a valuation of $2 trillion or more for an October debut. That figure would more than double the valuation from Anthropic's May funding round, which priced the company far lower. The exact May number hasn't been publicly confirmed, but the gap highlights how much investor expectations have escalated.
Bankers and investors are reportedly pushing beyond traditional valuation metrics, betting that Anthropic's revenue growth justifies the premium. The company's own forecasts underpin that optimism.
Revenue Forecasts Out to 2028
Anthropic projects roughly $190 billion to $200 billion in revenue by 2028, a dramatic leap from the $47 billion annualized run rate it disclosed in May. That projection implies sustained triple-digit growth over the next four years, a pace few tech companies have maintained.
The long-term view is unusual. Most IPO pricing relies on near-term earnings, but Anthropic's investors are looking years ahead. That's partly because of the enormous costs of training and running advanced AI models, which eat into current profits and make future scale the only realistic measure of value.
Why Investors Look So Far Ahead
AI model training is expensive, and Anthropic's spending is expected to remain heavy for years. That means traditional price-to-earnings ratios don't capture the company's trajectory. Instead, bankers and investors are focusing on the revenue potential of AI systems that could replace human labor across industries.
The strategy carries risk. If Anthropic's growth slows or its AI products fail to match expectations, a $2 trillion valuation would leave little room for error. But for now, the market's mood is clearly bullish.
The exact listing date remains unannounced, but the rising odds suggest an official timeline could come within weeks. If the October window holds, Anthropic would join a crowded field of tech IPOs, and its valuation would set a new bar for AI companies.
