Intel shares tumbled 5.14% on Friday and extended losses into early Monday trading, as the chipmaker faced headwinds from a crowded Computex showcase and fresh doubts about its manufacturing ambitions. The sell-off erased a portion of a months-long rally that had lifted the stock from a late-March low near $40 to a May 11 peak of almost $133 — a gain of more than 230%.
Computex contrast: Nvidia's new chip steals the show
At Computex this week, Nvidia stole much of the spotlight by unveiling the RTX Spark superchip, an Arm-based processor with a Blackwell GPU bound for Windows laptops and desktops. The chip will launch this fall across Dell, HP, Microsoft, Lenovo, ASUS, and MSI. Intel, meanwhile, detailed its Crescent Island AI GPU at the same event but noted that sampling remains months away. The timing gap left analysts questioning whether Intel can keep pace in the AI hardware race.
Intel CEO Lip-Bu Tan is scheduled to deliver a Computex keynote on June 2, but the company's product roadmap already faces scrutiny. Nvidia's Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) recently dipped below zero to roughly negative 0.08, weaker than Intel's still-positive CMF — yet Nvidia's new silicon could rekindle buying interest.
Manufacturing uncertainty: the 18A process puzzle
Morgan Stanley recently estimated that Intel's 18A process node — a critical part of its turnaround plan — is running at roughly 50% yield. That figure, far below what rivals typically achieve at scale, raises questions about cost and timeline. Apple, the estimates note, remains the only customer to have signed a contract for 18A production. Without additional clients, the foundry business faces a steep hill to profitability.
Heavy selling and shifting sentiment
Friday's sell-off came on unusually heavy volume: roughly 191.68 million shares changed hands, well above average. The Chaikin Money Flow for Intel weakened between May 18 and May 29, even as the price trended higher — a classic sign that institutional investors were quietly distributing shares. The put-call volume ratio sits at 0.60, but the open interest ratio of 1.05 suggests options traders remain slightly skewed toward bearish bets.
Analyst targets diverge widely
Wall Street's view on Intel is far from unified. Mizuho Securities reiterated a Hold rating but raised its target from $124 to $128. Barclays set a target range of $65 to $100, while Wells Fargo pegged the stock at $85 to $110. The wide spread reflects deep uncertainty about Intel's foundry strategy and its ability to compete with Nvidia and AMD in the AI chip market.
Key price levels to watch
Technically, Intel's first hurdle sits at $128. A break above that opens the path to $136 and then $144. On the downside, support rests at $102. A deeper unwind could expose the $64 level — roughly where the stock traded before the rally began. With the CEO's keynote approaching and no new catalyst in sight, traders will be watching whether the stock can hold above $100.
