Meta is building a prediction market that would let users wager on future events — but not with real money. The project, ordered directly by chief executive Mark Zuckerberg, would operate as a standalone product separate from the company's existing apps, according to a New York Times report.
What the internal project looks like
Employees inside Meta have been working on the system, which relies on a points-based betting mechanism rather than cash. Users would place virtual wagers on outcomes — political races, sports results, or other questions — and earn or lose points depending on whether they're right. The model mirrors the mechanics of real-money prediction exchanges but avoids the regulatory and financial risks that come with handling actual currency.
The New York Times, citing unnamed people familiar with the effort, reported that Zuckerberg gave the order for the project. That top-down push signals a strategic interest in prediction markets, a space that has drawn attention from tech companies and startups in recent years.
Why prediction markets appeal to Meta
Prediction markets aggregate user forecasts into a probability for a given event. Backers argue they can produce more accurate predictions than polls or pundits because participants have skin in the game — even if that skin is just a points tally. For Meta, a points-only version would let it test the concept without navigating gambling laws in the U.S. or abroad.
The company has long explored ways to boost user engagement and gather real-time sentiment data. A prediction market could feed into that, giving the company new signals about what users believe will happen next, without the complications of real-money transactions. The system is being built independently of Facebook, Instagram, and WhatsApp, the report said, meaning it wouldn't be tied to any existing product or user identity system.
Regulatory and competitive landscape
Real-money prediction platforms like PredictIt and Kalshi operate under special regulatory exemptions in the U.S. and remain a niche market. By avoiding cash, Meta sidesteps the Commodity Futures Trading Commission's oversight of event contracts, as well as state-by-state gambling restrictions. But the points approach raises its own questions — namely, whether users would care enough to participate without a financial incentive.
Competitors have already tested similar territory. X, formerly Twitter, briefly experimented with a prediction feature under Elon Musk, though that project never launched widely. Meta's scale — billions of active users across its family of apps — could make even a points-based market significant if it manages to attract a large user base.
What happens next
The New York Times did not report a timeline for a public launch or even a test. The project remains in development, and Meta has not confirmed any details about it. The company declined to comment to the Times for the story. For now, the points-based prediction market is an internal effort that may or may not see the light of day — but the fact that Zuckerberg ordered it suggests he sees potential in turning user forecasts into a product.
