Employment among software developers aged 22 to 25 in the United States has fallen nearly 20% since the launch of ChatGPT, according to new research from Stanford University. The decline is reshaping the tech labor market, with younger workers bearing the brunt of the shift.
The numbers behind the drop
The Stanford study, which tracks employment data through the end of 2024, found that the share of young software developers in the workforce shrank sharply after OpenAI released ChatGPT in November 2022. The nearly 20% decline is concentrated among the cohort that typically enters the industry after college or early in their careers.
Researchers did not specify the exact number of jobs lost, but the drop is large enough to alter hiring patterns across the tech sector. The study’s authors note that the change coincides with the rapid adoption of generative AI tools that can automate coding tasks previously done by entry-level developers.
Why the tech labor market is shifting
The decline in young developer employment is not just a blip. It reflects a broader reshaping of the tech labor market, as companies reassess how many junior developers they need. Some firms have scaled back hiring for roles that involve repetitive coding, work that AI can now handle. Others are requiring more experience for entry-level positions, effectively raising the bar for new graduates.
Stanford’s research suggests that the impact has been most pronounced for workers who are just starting out. The 22-25 age group is often the first to feel the effects of automation, as employers cut the positions that are easiest to replace with AI. The study did not examine whether older developers have seen similar job losses, but the data points to a generational divide in the AI era.
What this means for young graduates
For those entering the software field, the job market has become more competitive. A degree in computer science or a coding boot camp no longer guarantees a position. The drop in employment means that fewer young people are landing the kind of entry-level roles that used to be a pipeline into the industry.
That could have long-term consequences. If fewer developers get their start in the field, the talent pipeline for senior roles may shrink in the years ahead. Companies may need to rethink how they train new hires, or invest more in upskilling from within. The Stanford study does not offer solutions, but it highlights a trend that is already reshaping hiring practices.
Unanswered questions
The study raises questions that the researchers did not answer. How much of the decline is directly due to AI, versus other factors like the broader tech downturn or changes in offshoring? And will the trend continue as AI tools become more capable? The data only covers the first two years after ChatGPT’s launch, so the full picture is still unfolding.
What is clear is that the tech labor market is not the same as it was in 2022. Young developers are facing a landscape that looks very different from the one that greeted their predecessors. Whether the drop stabilizes or deepens will depend on how companies adapt—and on how quickly the next generation of coders can adjust to a world where AI is a co-worker, not just a tool.
