Unitree founder Wang Xingxing says humanoid robots will hit their 'ChatGPT moment' in two to ten years — meaning a machine that walks into an unfamiliar home and completes roughly 80% of everyday tasks from text or voice instructions alone. That window spans 2028 to 2036, depending on how quickly the technology matures.
What the 'ChatGPT moment' means
Wang defined the benchmark during an event this week. A robot that can parse a simple instruction — 'tidy the living room' or 'make dinner' — and handle most of the work without hand-holding. He estimates the milestone could arrive in just two to three years if development moves fast, but five to ten years on a slower track.
His timeline has shifted. At the same event last year, Wang said the breakthrough was less than five years out. Now he's hedging across a wider range, with the optimistic end pulling closer.
Another founder's bet
Galbot founder Wang He is more specific. He expects embodied intelligence — robots that can perceive and act in real spaces — to reach that same 'ChatGPT moment' by 2028. That lands inside the faster half of Unitree's prediction.
Shipment numbers and China's lead
Morgan Stanley's latest data gives the industry some weight. Roughly 19,000 humanoid robots were shipped globally in the first half of 2026, a 272% jump from the same period a year earlier. Chinese manufacturers account for 97% of those units.
The bank expects China's humanoid shipments to hit 50,000 units in 2026, up from 12,000 in 2025. That's a four-fold increase in a single year, and it puts Chinese firms at the center of the market.
Unitree's stock debut
Tether CEO Paolo Ardoino called Unitree the company to watch in robotics. The market seems to agree, at least initially. Unitree's stock opened 629% above its IPO price on Wednesday after its Shanghai debut. By Thursday's close, shares sat at 687 yuan, down 19% from the opening pop.
Nomura initiated coverage with a buy rating but set a price target of 370 yuan — well below where the stock currently trades. That gap suggests analysts see a fundamental value far lower than what buyers are paying.
The question now is whether the hype holds. Wang's own timeline stretches a decade out, and the stock is already pricing in a future that may take years to arrive. For now, the market is betting on the optimistic end.
