tags. The first paragraph: "The US Treasury has let a sanctions waiver on Russian seaborne oil lapse, a move that could tighten global oil supply. The decision, which took effect on the waiver's expiration date, removes a key exception that had allowed some Russian crude to reach world markets despite the broader embargo. Analysts warn the shift may push oil prices higher, stoke inflation, and force the Federal Reserve to hold off on interest rate cuts."
Translation: "美国财政部已让一项针对俄罗斯海运石油的制裁豁免失效，此举可能收紧全球石油供应。该决定于豁免到期日生效，取消了一个关键例外条款——该条款此前允许部分俄罗斯原油在更广泛禁运背景下仍能进入全球市场。分析师警告称，这一转变可能推高油价、加剧通胀，并迫使美联储推迟降息。"
Note: "Federal Reserve" I translated as "美联储" (common). "interest rate cuts" -> "降息".
Second paragraph: "Why the waiver expired" heading: "为何豁免到期" or "豁免到期原因". Use
tags.
Content: "The waiver was part of a broader sanctions package aimed at reducing Russia's oil revenue after its invasion of Ukraine. It had allowed certain transactions tied to Russian seaborne crude to proceed, mainly through insurance and shipping services. By letting it lapse, the Treasury signals it sees no reason to extend the carve-out. No new waiver has been announced, and no replacement mechanism is in place."
Translation: "该豁免是旨在削减俄罗斯在入侵乌克兰后石油收入的一揽子更广泛制裁措施的一部分。它曾允许与俄罗斯海运原油相关的某些交易继续进行，主要通过保险和航运服务。通过让其失效，美国财政部表明其认为没有理由延长这一例外。目前尚未宣布新的豁免，也没有替代机制到位。"
Third paragraph: "Without the waiver, buyers face higher legal and logistical hurdles to access Russian crude. That could take barrels off the market at a time when global supply is already tight. OPEC+ production cuts and refinery outages have made the market sensitive to any disruption. Traders are watching for a price response, though the immediate impact may be muted if Russian oil finds alternative buyers outside the waiver's scope."
Translation: "没有豁免，买家获取俄罗斯原油将面临更高的法律和物流障碍。这可能在全球供应本已紧张的情况下将部分石油从市场中移除。OPEC+的减产和炼油厂停产使市场对任何中断都变得敏感。交易商正在关注价格反应，不过如果俄罗斯石油在豁免范围之外找到替代买家，短期影响可能会被削弱。"
"OPEC+" keep as "OPEC+"? In Chinese, often "欧佩克+" but I'll keep "OPEC+" to follow instruction? But the instruction says keep proper nouns in original form, so "OPEC+" is an acronym, so keep as "OPEC+". However, in Chinese text, it's common to write "OPEC+" as is. So fine.
Fourth paragraph heading: "Inflation and the rate-cut calculus" -> "通胀与降息考量" or "通胀与降息计算". Use "通胀与降息考量".
Content: "Higher oil prices feed directly into inflation. Gasoline costs, shipping, and industrial inputs all rise when crude climbs. That's bad news for the Federal Reserve, which has been trying to cool inflation without tipping the economy into recession. If oil-driven inflation ticks up, the Fed may delay the rate cuts it had been hinting at for later this year. Markets had been pricing in a cut as early as the spring; that timeline could slip."
Translation: "油价上涨直接推高通胀。原油攀升时，汽油成本、航运和工业投入品价格均会上涨。这对美联储来说是个坏消息，该机构一直试图在不使经济陷入衰退的情况下冷却通胀。如果石油驱动的通胀上升，美联储可能会推迟其此前暗示的今年晚些时候的降息。市场此前预期最早在春季降息；这一时间表可能推迟。"
Fifth paragraph heading: "The broader economic picture" -> "更广泛的经济图景" or "整体经济形势". Use "整体经济形势".
Content: "The waiver's lapse hits at a sensitive moment. US inflation has eased but remains above the Fed's 2% target. Consumer spending has held up, but high
