The revised target
Reuters polled a group of analysts and money managers, who now see the index reaching 7,900 by the end of 2026. That's an upward revision from the previous poll, though the exact previous figure wasn't disclosed. The move suggests the market's recent AI-driven rally has changed expectations.
The new target implies a steady climb from current levels, but it's not a straight line. The poll was taken as investors weigh the pace of interest rate cuts and how much of the AI boom is already priced into stocks.
AI as the engine
Much of the optimism traces back to the tech sector. Companies building AI infrastructure, running data centers, and selling chips have been the main drivers of the S&P 500's gains this year. The poll's respondents see that trend extending well into 2026.
Still, the poll notes that the AI growth story is one of the key reasons for the raised forecast. Without that, the index might not be heading toward 7,900.
The earnings question
The biggest risk is whether companies can keep delivering the profit growth that would justify these levels. The poll flagged "uncertainty" about sustaining earnings momentum. If the AI boom loses steam, the index could fall short of the target.
Corporate earnings have already shown signs of pressure. Some companies outside the tech sector are struggling to keep up, and a slowdown in consumer spending could drag on the broader market.
The next major test will be the upcoming earnings season. Investors will be watching whether the companies at the heart of the AI boom can beat expectations again, and whether the rest of the market catches up.
For now, the 7,900 target is a projection, not a promise. The poll's own respondents seem to be holding their breath.
