Bitcoin slid more than 3% in 24 hours to $72,890, moving in the opposite direction of a massive stock market rally sparked by an Axios report detailing a draft 60-day memorandum of understanding between U.S. and Iranian negotiators. The S&P 500 and NASDAQ hit record highs after gaining roughly $350 billion in market value within 15 minutes of the report hitting wires. But crypto traders saw a different picture: Bitcoin extended its recent losses even as traditional markets cheered a potential de-escalation in the Middle East.
The Axios report that moved markets
Axios reported late Thursday that a draft MOU includes provisions for nuclear talks, an end to the U.S. naval blockade, and a requirement that Iran remove mines from the Strait of Hormuz within 30 days. In exchange, Iran would commit to not pursuing nuclear weapons and would dispose of its stockpile of highly enriched uranium. The U.S. would discuss sanctions relief and releasing frozen Iranian funds. President Trump and Iran's senior leadership, including Mojtaba Khamenei, have not yet approved the deal. Trump reportedly asked for “a few days to think about it.”
Why Bitcoin didn't join the rally
While equities surged, Bitcoin's decline underscored a split in how different asset classes are interpreting the news. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent confirmed that U.S. sanctions and the naval blockade remain active until a formal agreement is signed, leaving the geopolitical situation unresolved. Separately, Mark Cuban sold most of his Bitcoin holdings, explaining in a social media post that he no longer sees the cryptocurrency as a hedge asset. Cuban said it has become a risk-on asset during geopolitical events, a characterization that appears to be playing out in real time.
Bessent's warning to Oman
Bessent also warned Oman and other entities against facilitating tolls in the Strait of Hormuz, threatening Treasury penalties for non-compliance. The warning suggests the administration is keeping pressure on regional actors even as negotiations progress. The Strait remains a chokepoint for global oil shipments, and any disruption could have knock-on effects for energy markets — and by extension, for crypto mining and transaction costs.
The deal is not done. Trump has asked for time to think, and Iran's senior leadership has yet to sign off. Until a formal agreement is announced, the naval blockade stays, sanctions stay, and markets will have to weigh each new leak or denial. For Bitcoin, the immediate question is whether it can hold above $70,000 or whether the risk-off rotation has room to run.
