China's exports rose 23.9% in July from a year earlier in dollar terms, topping analyst forecasts, as a global shortage of chips and electronics drove up both prices and shipment volumes. Imports climbed 27.5% during the month, and the trade surplus reached $112.5 billion — above the roughly $107 billion the market expected, though down from June's $125.6 billion.
Chip exports nearly double
The jump in shipments was led by semiconductors. Integrated circuit exports, measured by value, almost doubled in the first seven months of the year, and July alone saw chip shipments surge 117% from a year earlier. Mechanical and electrical products made up more than 60% of all shipments over that period.
Demand for electric vehicles, lithium batteries, and wind power equipment kept up a strong pace, according to the data. Industrial robots and 3D printers also grew quickly. But the headline numbers were flattered by rising prices — a shortage of chips and electronics has pushed some prices up as much as 700% over the past year, and higher oil costs and surging metal prices lifted the value of trade well beyond the actual volume shipped.
Easing from June's pace
July's export growth slowed from June's 27% jump, which had been the strongest expansion since October 2021. Analysts polled by Reuters had expected a 22.2% increase, while a Bloomberg survey projected a median gain of 23%. The actual figure came in above both.
The trade surplus also narrowed from June's record, but still beat expectations. The stronger-than-forecast surplus may offer some relief to policymakers worried about capital outflows and pressure on the yuan.
Domestic demand still weak
The trade data stand in contrast to a sluggish domestic picture. China's economy grew just 4.3% in the second quarter, its slowest pace since late 2022, and retail sales edged up only 1% in June. That suggests exports remain the main engine holding growth up, even as global demand shows signs of cooling.
The July figures come as factories rush to fill orders ahead of possible tariff hikes and shipping disruptions, but the price-driven gains could fade if chip supply catches up. For now, the export machine keeps humming — though the gap between overseas strength and homegrown weakness is getting harder to ignore.
