Fitch Ratings expects Brent crude oil to trade between $100 and $110 per barrel during June and July if the Strait of Hormuz is shut down. The projection comes as tensions in the region continue to mount, raising the stakes for global energy markets. Analysts at the credit ratings agency outlined the forecast in a recent note, warning that a prolonged closure could spark lasting economic pain and reshape energy policies worldwide.
Why the Strait of Hormuz Matters
About a fifth of the world’s oil passes through the narrow chokepoint between the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman. Any disruption there sends ripples through supply chains and prices. Fitch’s scenario is built on the assumption that the strait is closed for a sustained period — not just a few days — which would immediately tighten global crude supplies. The report doesn’t specify what might cause such a closure, but military or political conflicts in the region have long been the main worry.
The $100-$110 Forecast
The range Fitch cites is notable because Brent has already been volatile this year, but a spike above $100 would be a sharp jump from recent levels. The agency says the June-July window is critical: if the closure happens then, summer demand for fuel would amplify the price shock. That’s when refineries are typically running at high rates to meet driving and cooling needs in the Northern Hemisphere.
Broader Economic and Geopolitical Risks
A longer closure doesn’t just mean expensive gasoline. Fitch points to sustained global economic strain as countries scramble for alternatives. Energy policies in major consuming nations would likely shift — toward strategic reserves, alternative suppliers, or faster renewable adoption. Geopolitical alliances could also realign as producers and consumers weigh their options. The report stops short of naming specific countries or measures, but the implications are broad: higher inflation, slower growth, and a reordering of energy security priorities.
None of this is certain, of course. The forecast depends entirely on whether the strait is actually closed and for how long. If the waterway stays open, Brent prices will follow other factors. But the warning from Fitch puts a clear number on what markets have been nervously eyeing for months.
