Unitree, the robot maker, is going public. But on Hyperliquid, traders are already pricing the company at nearly $38 billion — about four times the $9 billion valuation set for its IPO. That gap has Allium analysts warning that leveraged bets could get hurt when trading actually begins.
A $29 billion gap between two markets
The numbers are hard to ignore. Unitree's IPO values the company at $9 billion. Hyperliquid traders, however, see it at $38 billion. That's a 4x upside from the IPO price, a bet that the stock will surge as soon as it hits the exchange.
Such a wide gap is unusual. Typically, pre-IPO markets and the official IPO price are closer together. Here, the difference is more than $29 billion. It suggests that Hyperliquid traders expect a massive first-day pop, or that they're pricing in something the IPO underwriters didn't.
What Hyperliquid traders are betting on
Hyperliquid is known for fast, leveraged trading. The platform allows users to take on significant debt to amplify their positions. According to the data, traders there are positioning for a quadruple from the IPO price. That means they're not just mildly optimistic — they're expecting a moonshot.
Unitree makes robots, but the company hasn't detailed its financials publicly beyond the IPO filing. Still, the enthusiasm on Hyperliquid suggests a belief that the robot sector will carry the stock higher. The $38 billion valuation implies that traders see Unitree as a dominant player in a fast-growing industry, not just another robotics startup.
Allium's warning on leveraged positions
Allium, a data analytics firm, has flagged a specific risk. Leveraged bets are vulnerable when trading begins. That's a straightforward warning: if the stock doesn't jump to $38 billion immediately, traders who borrowed money to buy in could face forced liquidations.
The mechanics are simple. If you buy a token or a stock with leverage and the price drops, the platform will sell your position to cover the loan. If many leveraged traders are on the same side, that selling can cascade. Allium's analysts didn't name names or give specifics, but the message is clear: the opening session could be messy.
The warning is particularly relevant because Hyperliquid traders are known for aggressive position-taking. A sharp move in either direction could trigger a chain reaction. If the stock opens below the Hyperliquid price, the leveraged longs will be squeezed. If it opens above, the short sellers could face the same fate.
What the first day of trading will show
When Unitree's shares start trading, the first minutes will reveal who's right — the IPO underwriters or the Hyperliquid crowd. If the stock opens near $38 billion, the leveraged traders win. If it opens near $9 billion, those positions could be wiped out quickly.
The volatility could be extreme. Allium's warning suggests that the leveraged bets are concentrated, and that means the risk is not just to individual traders, but to the market's stability in those early hours. The exchange will have to handle the swings.
For now, the IPO price is set. But the real test comes when the market opens. That's when the $29 billion gap will be resolved — one way or the other.
