Kalshi, the prediction market platform, is in advanced talks to raise about $1 billion in new funding, according to people familiar with the matter. The round would value the company at roughly $40 billion, a figure that would make it one of the most valuable privately held financial technology firms. Reuters reported the discussions on September 29.
The funding round is expected to include a mix of existing backers and new investors. Among those named in the report are Tiger Global Management and Dragoneer Investment Group. The final terms are still being negotiated and could change.
A bet on event contracts going mainstream
Kalshi operates a regulated exchange where users trade contracts tied to the outcome of real-world events. The company has spent years navigating the patchwork of US financial and election regulations that govern such products. That work has put it in a small group of platforms that can legally offer event-based derivatives to American customers.
The $40 billion valuation, if confirmed, would represent a sharp step up from the company's previous private market marks. It also signals that investors see room for growth in a niche that was once dismissed as a novelty for political junkies. Prediction markets have drawn more attention as a way to price uncertainty around elections, economic data, and other scheduled events.
The names behind the round
Tiger Global Management is a New York-based investment firm known for backing high-growth technology companies. Dragoneer Investment Group, based in San Francisco, has a similar focus on late-stage private companies. Both are described as participants in the talks. Neither firm has publicly commented on the potential deal.
The reported raise would give Kalshi significant firepower. The company could use the capital to expand its product lineup, improve its technology stack, or push into new markets. It could also fund a larger compliance and legal operation, a cost center that has been central to its strategy of operating within US rules.
Why the number matters
A $40 billion valuation for a prediction market platform would put Kalshi in rare air. For comparison, many publicly traded exchanges and brokerage firms carry lower market capitalizations. The figure suggests investors are pricing in a future where event contracts become a standard part of the financial landscape rather than a side attraction.
That future is not guaranteed. The regulatory environment for event contracts remains unsettled, and the company has faced legal challenges over which types of contracts it can list. A large valuation also raises expectations for revenue growth that may take years to materialize.
What happens next
The talks are ongoing and no deal has been finalized. If the round closes as described, it would be one of the largest private fundraises of the year. For now, the details remain unofficial, and the people familiar with the matter spoke on condition of anonymity because the discussions are private.
Investors and competitors will be watching for a formal announcement. Until then, the $1 billion figure and the $40 billion valuation are targets, not facts.
