Kalshi is in advanced talks to raise about $1 billion at a valuation near $40 billion, according to people familiar with the matter. The deal would nearly double the prediction market's valuation from May and add roughly $18 billion in paper value in a matter of months — a jump of about 82%.
Sequoia Capital and Wellington Management are in talks to lead the round, with Tiger Global and Dragoneer Investment Group among the reported investors. The round is expected to close within weeks.
The revenue gap behind the number
The $40 billion figure lands at an awkward spot when stacked against Kalshi's own disclosures. Sacra, a private markets research firm, estimates Kalshi hit $3.5 billion in annualized revenue in June, compared with $735 million in 2025. That implies a multiple of roughly 11 times revenue. Kalshi's own May disclosure put annualized revenue above $1.5 billion — a figure that, if accurate, would push the multiple well above 20 times.
The gap between the two numbers isn't explained in the facts, and neither Kalshi nor Sacra has reconciled them publicly.
For context, Sacra calculates that DraftKings trades at about 2.1 times revenue. Matching that multiple at a $40 billion valuation would require about $19 billion in annual revenue — more than five times Sacra's June estimate for Kalshi.
Sports contracts carry the volume
Sports contracts make up roughly 80% of Kalshi's volume, a concentration that matters as the company tries to sell investors on a broader vision. Kalshi wants to become a multi-asset trading platform, which would put it directly against CME Group and Intercontinental Exchange, the parent of the NYSE. That's a different business from the one currently generating most of its revenue.
The prediction market space is getting crowded at the same time. Polymarket is separately seeking $1 billion. Robinhood now routes some of its busiest World Cup contracts to its own exchange. Kalshi has taken market share from Polymarket over the past year, according to Dune Analytics data cited by Reuters.
Regulators are already circling
The raise is happening against a backdrop of increasing scrutiny. US Senator Adam Schiff and other lawmakers have raised investor-protection concerns about prediction markets. The House Oversight Committee has run an insider trading probe into prediction markets since May, and Kalshi was among its first targets. Kalshi has also faced wash trading claims, which it disputes.
Those issues haven't slowed the fundraising. Kalshi has held early talks on an initial public offering in the coming years, though no timeline has been set.
What to watch when the round closes
The round is expected to close within weeks. When it does, the disclosed terms will either confirm Sacra's $3.5 billion revenue estimate or validate Kalshi's own $1.5 billion figure from May. Either way, the multiple will be the number investors argue about next.
For now, the more immediate question is whether Sequoia and Wellington finalize the lead — and whether the House Oversight Committee's probe produces anything that changes the calculus before the ink dries.
