Kalshi, the prediction market platform, has created a new lobbying organization called Americans for Fair Markets. Its stated mission: push back against casino interests and shape how the federal government regulates prediction markets.
What Americans for Fair Markets aims to do
The group’s sole purpose, according to the filing, is to influence federal policy on prediction markets. That means fighting off what Kalshi sees as interference from the casino industry — a sector that could lose business if betting shifts to event-based contracts. Americans for Fair Markets will operate as a political advocacy organization, making it a direct vehicle for lobbying lawmakers and regulators.
Kalshi itself runs a federally regulated exchange where users trade on outcomes like election results, weather events, and economic data. The platform has long argued that prediction markets offer a legitimate hedging tool and a source of crowd-sourced intelligence, not gambling. Casino operators, they contend, have a financial incentive to blur that line and push for restrictions.
The lobbying push behind the scenes
By launching its own advocacy arm, Kalshi is moving beyond legal briefs and public comments. Americans for Fair Markets gives the company a permanent presence in Washington — a way to meet with members of Congress, attend hearings, and coordinate messaging. The group can also run issue ads and build coalitions with other industries that rely on event-based trading.
The timing matters. Regulators at the Commodity Futures Trading Commission have been wrestling with how to classify prediction market contracts. Some commissioners want to treat them like gambling; others see them as financial derivatives. Casino interests have already hired their own lobbyists to push for stricter limits. Kalshi's new group is a direct response.
How prediction markets and casinos clash
The core conflict is definitional. Casinos operate under state gambling laws and have a legal monopoly on most forms of betting. Prediction markets, by contrast, are regulated by the CFTC as commodity futures. If enough people see them as gambling, state attorneys general could start challenging the CFTC’s authority. That’s a risk Kalshi can’t ignore.
Casino trade groups have publicly questioned whether prediction markets skirt anti-gambling statutes. They argue that trading on the outcome of an election or a sporting event is functionally no different from placing a bet. Kalshi and its supporters say the difference lies in the regulatory framework, the transparency of the markets, and the hedging use cases.
Americans for Fair Markets will try to shift that narrative. The group plans to emphasize that prediction markets provide valuable data and risk management tools — not just a way to wager.
The formation of the lobbying arm marks a new phase in the regulatory fight. Whether it sways the CFTC or Congress remains an open question.
