Kalshi will terminate its volume incentive program effective October 13, the prediction market announced. The program, which paid traders based on the volume of contracts they bought and sold, will stop offering those rewards on that date.
The move removes a key tool Kalshi has used to encourage trading activity on its platform.
What the volume incentive program did
Kalshi's volume incentive program rewarded traders for hitting certain thresholds of trading volume. By paying out based on activity, it gave users a direct financial reason to place more trades and to keep markets active. The program was one of several levers the exchange used to build liquidity in its prediction contracts.
Prediction markets like Kalshi rely on having enough buyers and sellers at any given time. When volume is thin, prices can swing widely, and it becomes harder for traders to enter or exit positions at the prices they see on screen. Incentive programs aim to fix that by subsidizing the traders who provide that activity.
What ending the program could mean for liquidity
Without volume-based payouts, some traders may reduce how often they trade or how many contracts they take on. That could lead to thinner order books, meaning fewer contracts available at any given price. In practical terms, thinner books can mean wider spreads — the gap between the best buy and sell offers — and prices that react more sharply to individual trades.
Market liquidity and pricing efficiency in prediction markets are closely tied. When there are fewer participants, the market's collective judgment about the probability of an event can become less reliable. A contract that should trade at a certain price based on available information might instead trade higher or lower because of a temporary imbalance in supply and demand.
Kalshi hasn't said whether it plans to replace the volume incentive program with another mechanism. The termination notice simply states the program will end on October 13.
Why the timing matters
October 13 is the cutoff. After that date, no new volume-based rewards will accrue under the program. Traders who have been factoring those rewards into their strategies will need to adjust.
For now, the practical effect is straightforward: the extra payout that came with trading volume disappears. Whether that changes how people trade on Kalshi — and how deeply — is the open question.
The exchange has not indicated whether it will introduce a different incentive structure or leave the market to find its own equilibrium. Until then, traders and observers will be watching the order books after October 13 to see what happens to spreads and volume.
