Polymarket, the prediction market platform, is showing a 64% probability that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates at some point in 2026. The platform also assigns a 49.5% chance of a rate hike by September of that year.
Probability Breakdown
The two figures imply a 14.5% probability of a rate hike occurring in the final three months of 2026. The numbers are derived from user bets on the platform, which update in real time as new economic data and Fed commentary emerge.
Market Sentiment
The probabilities reflect the collective view of Polymarket users, who are wagering on the outcome of Fed policy decisions. A 64% chance for the full year suggests the market sees a rate hike as more likely than not, though far from certain.
