The Reserve Bank of India is expected to keep its benchmark interest rate unchanged through the end of 2026, according to a Reuters poll of economists. That steady policy stance, in a country where traditional savings vehicles like fixed deposits already offer relatively low returns, could nudge more Indian investors toward alternative assets — including cryptocurrencies.
What the poll says
The Reuters poll, conducted in late July, surveyed over 50 economists. The consensus: the RBI's repo rate will stay at 6.50% for the remainder of 2026. Inflation remains within the central bank's target range, and the economy is growing at a solid clip, giving policymakers little reason to move.
India's crypto market has been in a strange place. The government has imposed heavy taxes — a 30% levy on gains and a 1% tax deducted at source on every trade — which has pushed many retail traders toward offshore exchanges. But the regulatory fog is slowly lifting. The Financial Intelligence Unit (FIU) has registered several offshore platforms, and the Supreme Court recently declined to hear a challenge to the tax regime, effectively leaving it in place.
With rates locked in place, the opportunity cost of holding crypto instead of fixed deposits becomes more attractive. If the RBI were to hike, fixed deposits would become more competitive. But with no hike in sight, the relative appeal of crypto as a high-risk, high-return play could grow.
What Indian investors are watching
The real catalyst would be a rate cut, which the poll says is unlikely this year. But even a steady rate environment can shift behavior. Indian retail investors have shown a strong appetite for crypto during bull runs, and the current sideways market hasn't killed interest entirely. Local exchanges like CoinDCX and WazirX have reported steady user growth, though trading volumes remain below 2021 peaks.
The bigger question is whether the government will ease the tax burden. So far, there's no sign of that. But if the RBI's hold on rates persists, and inflation stays moderate, the pressure on policymakers to make crypto more accessible could build.
The RBI's next monetary policy committee meeting is scheduled for early August. No change is expected. For crypto investors in India, the near-term outlook depends less on central bank policy and more on whether New Delhi decides to tweak the tax rules. That decision could come in the next budget session, likely in early 2027.
