SanDisk (SNDK) shares fell 5.09% on Friday to close at $1,214.83, pushing the stock's relative strength index to its lowest point since April 2025. The RSI now sits near 33, just above the oversold threshold of 30, as the selloff deepens ahead of the company's fiscal fourth-quarter earnings report due August 5.
Why the stock is sliding
The decline has erased roughly 48% of SanDisk's value from its June peak of $2,354.39. Investors are increasingly worried about a potential NAND inventory glut in the second half of 2026, which could compress margins even as demand remains uncertain. The selloff accelerated through July despite a flurry of analyst price-target hikes — a disconnect that often signals the market is pricing in risks not yet reflected in Wall Street models.
Volume was heaviest during the late-July capitulation, when the stock briefly undercut the $1,000 mark, but it faded during the subsequent recovery attempt. That pattern suggests the selling may have been exhausted, but the lack of follow-through buying leaves the stock in a fragile position.
What the technicals show
Using the Fibonacci retracement from the April 2026 low of $558.58 to the June peak, the stock found support at the 0.786 level near $942.89 in late July. The bounce that followed stalled at the 0.618 level of $1,244.58. Friday's close slipped back below that mark, turning it into resistance.
If SanDisk can reclaim $1,244.58 after earnings, the next target is the 0.5 retracement at $1,456.49, followed by the $1,668 resistance zone. But a rejection at $1,244 could send the stock back toward $942.89 — a drop of about 22% from current levels.
Earnings expectations and analyst views
SanDisk guided fiscal Q4 revenue between $7.75 billion and $8.25 billion, representing sequential growth of 30% to 39%. Adjusted EPS is expected to land between $30 and $33, compared with just $0.02 a year earlier. Wall Street consensus sits at $33.28 per share. The company has beaten bottom-line estimates in each of the past four quarters.
Goldman Sachs recently raised its price target from $1,200 to $2,200, citing continued tightness in NAND supply. But the broader market remains skeptical about the second-half 2026 outlook, and the earnings call on August 5 will be the first chance for management to address the glut fears directly.
What comes next
Beyond the quarterly numbers, SanDisk's Investor Day on August 13 will be the bigger event. That's where executives are expected to lay out their vision for the new fiscal year and offer more concrete guidance. The debate between bulls who see supply constraints persisting and bears who anticipate a margin-crushing oversupply won't be settled until then.
For now, the stock is stuck between two Fibonacci levels, with the earnings report acting as the catalyst that could break the stalemate. A post-earnings reclaim of $1,244 would open the door to $1,456, while a failure risks a retest of the $942 support zone.
