Short sellers have made $15.5 billion betting against SpaceX since the company's initial public offering, according to data from analytics firm Ortex. The firm also estimates that nearly 49% of SpaceX's free float is currently on loan to short sellers, a sign of heavy bearish positioning. The figures highlight the scale of bearish bets against the company.
The Short Interest Picture
Ortex's figures show that a significant portion of SpaceX's tradable shares are being borrowed and sold short. The 49% short interest as a percentage of free float is unusually high. For context, most heavily shorted companies see short interest in the range of 20% to 40%. Free float refers to shares available for trading by the public, excluding those held by insiders or large institutional investors. Ortex's estimate means that almost half of those tradable shares are now in the hands of short sellers.
How Short Sellers Profited
Short sellers borrow shares from brokers and sell them, hoping to buy them back at a lower price. The $15.5 billion in profits indicates that SpaceX's stock has declined substantially since its IPO. Ortex's data tracks mark-to-market gains based on stock price changes over time. The cumulative gains suggest the stock has been under persistent downward pressure. Short sellers have been able to profit from the decline, though the exact timing of their trades is not disclosed by Ortex.
Risks of High Short Interest
When nearly half of a company's free float is on loan to short sellers, the stock becomes vulnerable to a short squeeze. If the price rises unexpectedly, short sellers may rush to buy back shares to limit losses, driving the price even higher. Such dynamics have played out in other heavily shorted stocks, though each situation is unique. Ortex's data does not predict whether SpaceX's stock will rise or fall. It simply records the current level of short interest and the profits short sellers have accumulated so far.
Ortex continues to monitor short selling activity in SpaceX. The firm's next update will provide further insight into whether short sellers are increasing or reducing their positions. Investors and traders will be watching closely for any changes in the short interest figures.
