SpaceX kicked off its IPO roadshow Wednesday targeting a $75 billion valuation, with shares set to debut on the Nasdaq on June 12 under the ticker SPCX. But the company's financial projections hinge on a single customer — Anthropic — which filed its own confidential IPO prospectus with the SEC the same day.
A $15 billion annual payment with a 90-day exit
The contract between the two companies is massive: Anthropic pays SpaceX $1.25 billion per month, or $15 billion annually, for AI compute. In exchange, SpaceX provides access to 325,000 Nvidia GPUs spread across its Colossus and Colossus II facilities in Memphis. The deal has an initial three-month period, after which Anthropic can terminate with just 90 days' notice.
That short-term clause makes SpaceX's projected $45 billion in revenue contingent on commitments that could evaporate quickly. The payments from Anthropic approach the entirety of SpaceX's annual revenue, according to the company's filings.
Musk's about-face on Anthropic
Elon Musk publicly called Anthropic 'evil' and 'misanthropic' in March 2026, only to reverse course two months later. In May 2026, Musk said he was impressed with the team and that they 'didn't set off my evil detector.' The flip came as the two companies were negotiating the GPU contract, people familiar with the matter said.
The relationship remains tense. Anthropic is building its own AI infrastructure, which could eventually eliminate the need to pay SpaceX for compute. That would cut off the revenue stream SpaceX's IPO valuation depends on.
Investor dilemma: two bets, one payoff
Institutional investors face a direct tradeoff. Betting on SpaceX means betting that Anthropic keeps paying. Betting on Anthropic means betting it builds self-sufficient infrastructure and drops the contract. The two IPOs are effectively linked.
Goldman Sachs is leading the SpaceX offering, while Morgan Stanley manages a direct share program that reserves 5% of the IPO stock for insiders — with no lockup restrictions. That means early employees and investors can sell immediately after the debut, a rare arrangement.
Anthropic's confidential IPO filing remains under SEC review, and the company has not set a date or valuation target. SpaceX's roadshow continues through early June. Whether the contract survives the next 90 days — and whether Anthropic's own offering draws money away from SpaceX — are the open questions investors are asking.
