President Donald Trump's Tuesday Truth Social post about the Strait of Hormuz and a warning to Iran coincided with a 2.8% jump in SpaceX shares, but the move had little to do with his words. The stock had already gained more than 1% in premarket trading before the post appeared, and it was recovering from a 1.4% slide on Monday.
What Trump said
Trump praised SpaceX and Space Force, mentioned the Strait of Hormuz, and warned Iran about mine placement. He didn't name a company, a contract, or a dollar figure — unlike his December 2016 tweet about F-35 costs, which wiped roughly $3.5 billion off Lockheed Martin's market value in a day.
No analyst tied Tuesday's gain to Trump's post. The market's attention was already on SpaceX's broader momentum, not a single social media message.
A stock that's already been running
SpaceX gained 24% in August after reclaiming its IPO price, and the recent move extends that stretch. JPMorgan reiterated a $240 price target, implying nearly 80% upside from current levels, with analysts pointing to AI-related bets. TipRanks data shows 33 analysts rate the stock a Moderate Buy, with an average target of $228.59.
But Tuesday's bounce was partly a rebound. The stock dropped 1.4% on Monday, and premarket trading was already up more than 1% before Trump's post hit. So the day's gain is more about short-term trading rhythm than presidential influence.
Pentagon contracts provide the real fuel
SpaceX's military work is the more concrete driver. In May, Space Systems Command awarded the company a $2.29 billion contract to build a military data network. In July, that same command placed a $1.6 billion order for 18 Falcon 9 launches. Those deals give investors a reason to hold the stock beyond any daily headline.
Trump's post praised both SpaceX and Space Force, but the contracts were already public. The post didn't add new information about these deals.
The September unlock
The next potential market event isn't a presidential post — it's the release of roughly 370 million insider shares in September. That unlock could increase supply and pressure the stock, even if the company's fundamentals stay strong.
How the stock absorbs that share release may matter more than any single Truth Social message. Investors will be watching the trading volume in the weeks ahead.
