SpaceX (SPCX) shares closed at $135.27 on Wednesday, barely above the $135 IPO price, as the company's stock continues to struggle under the weight of a massive lock-up period. The stock hit an intraday low of $132.28, marking its first close below the IPO price since its Nasdaq debut on June 12.
Lock-Up Looms Over Trading
Approximately 95% of SpaceX shares remain locked, with only 5% freely tradable. That thin float has made the stock vulnerable to price swings, and Wednesday's close just above the IPO price underscores the pressure from the lock-up structure. The company will release additional 7% tranches of shares through August and September, with a larger share release following Q3 results later this year. Elon Musk's 6.4 billion-share stake remains locked separately until June 2027.
Earnings Window Could Trigger First Unlock
Analysts expect SpaceX to report its first quarterly results in the first week of August. That earnings window triggers the first scheduled unlock, freeing roughly 20% of previously restricted shares. A bonus 10% tranche unlocks early if shares trade 30% above the IPO price, requiring five of ten trading days before the report to close above $175.50. SPCX currently trades well below that threshold, making the early unlock unlikely.
Technical Picture
The stock's Nasdaq-100 inclusion failed to reverse the decline. Some technical analysts see a rebound scenario forming with $158 in view, but the stock would need to climb more than 17% from current levels to reach that target. The next major catalyst is the earnings report in early August, which will determine whether the first unlock proceeds as scheduled or if the stock can rally enough to trigger the bonus tranche.
