Oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz may not return to normal until the end of the year, according to Jeff Currie of Abaxx Markets. The warning comes as ongoing instability in the critical waterway threatens to reshape global energy markets. Currie's assessment points to a prolonged disruption that could give Iran leverage in international talks while pushing up demand and draining stockpiles.
Currie's Forecast
Jeff Currie, a strategist at Abaxx Markets, said the normalization of oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz is unlikely before late 2025. The strait, a narrow passage between the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman, handles roughly a fifth of the world's petroleum. Any sustained interruption there has ripple effects across supply chains. Currie didn't specify a single cause, but the broader instability in the region has kept tanker traffic unpredictable for months.
The disruption could strengthen Iran's hand in negotiations with other nations. Tehran has long used the strait's chokepoint as a strategic card. With flows constrained, Iran may demand concessions in talks over its nuclear program or regional influence. Analysts following the situation say Tehran is already positioning itself to capitalize on the uncertainty, though no direct statements from Iranian officials have been made public.
Global Demand and Inventory Strain
Currie also warned that the situation could elevate global oil demand, as buyers scramble to secure alternative supplies. That scramble, in turn, will strain inventories that are already tighter than in previous years. Refineries in Asia and Europe are particularly exposed — they rely heavily on crude passing through the strait. If tanker delays persist, those refineries may have to draw down strategic reserves or pay higher spot prices, adding to inflationary pressures in their home markets.
Broader Energy Market Fallout
The impact isn't limited to crude. Natural gas and liquefied natural gas also transit the strait, and any choke point there raises costs for power generation and industrial users worldwide. Shipping insurance premiums have already crept up for vessels entering the region, and some carriers are routing cargoes the long way around Africa. Those extra costs get passed down the supply chain. The International Energy Agency has yet to release a formal assessment of the strait's disruption, but market watchers expect a downward revision in global supply forecasts when the agency next updates its monthly report.
One unresolved question: how long can major economies absorb the added costs before political pressure forces a diplomatic resolution? For now, Currie's timeline of a year-end normalization leaves months of uncertainty ahead.
