The United States and Iran have struck a peace deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, sending oil prices to two-month lows. Brent crude fell about 5% to near $83 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate dropped below $80. The strait, which carried roughly one-fifth of global oil before the conflict, is set to reopen Friday, June 15, 2026.
The toll question
The deal includes a 60-day grace period, but what happens after that is sharply contested. President Trump claims the reopening is permanently toll-free. Vice President JD Vance and Iranian officials, however, indicate that fees will apply once the grace period ends. Iran says the U.S. agreed to permanently hand over the strait under full sovereign authority, with tolls starting after 60 days.
Iran plans to charge what it calls service fees on ships passing through. Before the war, no tolls were collected. During the conflict, an informal $1-per-barrel fee was levied, with individual voyages charged up to $2 million. The strait moves about 7.6 billion barrels of oil a year. At tolls of $0.50, $1, or $2 per barrel, Iran would pocket $3.8 billion, $7.6 billion, or $15.2 billion annually.
Market reaction
The reopening news crushed Brent crude's backwardation — the spread between first and second contracts — from roughly $10.27 in April to about $0.67. That's a clear signal that the supply shortage is easing. Speculators cut short bets on Brent by about 9,300 contracts by June 9. The put-call ratio on the United States Brent Oil Fund (BNO) dropped to 0.06, reflecting bullish positioning.
Goldman Sachs trimmed its oil price forecasts after the deal but warned that renewed volatility is likely if the toll implementation is contested. The U.S. Energy Information Administration still expects Brent to average about $105 in June and July.
What reopening means for oil prices
Analysts estimate a smooth toll arrangement could add $2 to $6 per barrel to global crude prices. A messy reopening — with disputes over fees — could add $10 or more, potentially pushing Brent into the high $80s to mid $90s. A full-blown conflict over toll enforcement could send prices above $100.
Executives at Chevron and ExxonMobil have warned that Brent could spike toward $150 to $160 if inventories keep draining. The U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve is at a 43-year low, leaving the country with less emergency cushion than it has had in decades.
Next steps
The strait is scheduled to reopen this Friday. But the 60-day grace period means the toll question won't be settled until mid-August. Iran insists fees will start then. The White House says otherwise. Whether the toll will actually be collected — and at what rate — remains an open question that traders are watching closely.
