The US Census Bureau is projecting 29,700 new employer businesses will launch each month, based on the latest data. Overall new business formations are up 17% year-over-year, and the numbers are being driven by a sharp rise in AI-related startups — up 45% since November 2022.
Professional services lead the charge
The surge is concentrated in professional services, the category that includes consulting, software development, and other knowledge-based fields. These are the kinds of businesses that can spin up quickly with relatively low overhead, and they're the ones most likely to adopt or build AI tools. The Census Bureau's Business Formation Statistics track applications for employer identification numbers, a leading indicator of where new companies are forming.
Why AI is fueling the jump
Since the public launch of ChatGPT in late 2022, interest in artificial intelligence has exploded. That's showing up in the data. The 45% increase in AI-related formations isn't just a blip — it's a sustained trend that has accelerated over the past year. Entrepreneurs are rushing to start companies that either sell AI services or use AI to streamline their own operations. The Census Bureau doesn't break out AI as a separate industry code, but it does track business descriptions and NAICS codes that allow analysts to identify AI-focused applicants.
What the numbers mean for the economy
New business formation is a closely watched metric because it signals confidence in the economy and often precedes job creation. A 17% year-over-year increase is significant, especially when combined with the AI bump. The professional services sector has been a consistent driver of growth, and the latest data suggests that trend is accelerating. The Census Bureau's projections are based on applications received so far, adjusted for seasonal patterns and historical conversion rates.
The monthly projection of 29,700 new employer businesses is a forward-looking estimate. It's not a guarantee — some applicants never actually start hiring — but it's the best real-time gauge available. The Bureau updates its Business Formation Statistics every month, and the next release will show whether the AI surge is still gaining steam.
