Vice President JD Vance expects oil flows from the Gulf to return to pre-conflict levels, citing the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz as a key step toward stabilizing global markets. But he acknowledged that lingering risks and unresolved protocols could still hold back a full recovery.
Why the Strait of Hormuz matters
The Strait of Hormuz is the world's most important oil chokepoint, with roughly a fifth of global petroleum consumption passing through its narrow waters each day. When the strait was effectively closed during the recent conflict, shipments from Saudi Arabia, Iraq, the UAE, and other Gulf producers were forced to reroute or halt entirely. That disruption sent prices swinging and raised fears of a prolonged supply crunch.
Now that the strait has reopened, tankers are moving again. Vance said the return to normal traffic should allow Gulf producers to restore output to the levels seen before the fighting began. The prospect of steady supply has already eased some of the pressure on crude prices, though markets remain cautious.
What could still go wrong
Vance did not spell out every obstacle, but he pointed to two broad concerns: lingering risks and unresolved protocols. The first covers the possibility of renewed attacks on shipping, mines left in the water, or insurance companies refusing to cover voyages through the strait. The second involves the rules and procedures that govern vessel traffic, inspections, and coordination among the navies and coast guards that patrol the area.
Until those protocols are fully restored and verified, some exporters may hold back on committing to large shipments. Tanker owners, too, are likely to demand higher premiums to sail through a waterway that was a war zone just weeks ago. Even with the strait open, the recovery may be gradual rather than immediate.
What the market is watching
Traders and refiners are now watching for signs that actual cargoes are moving at pre-conflict volumes. Vance's statement offers a baseline expectation, but the market will respond to hard data on loadings and arrivals. A few successful transits with no incidents would do more than any political assurance.
The unresolved protocols also include how quickly Gulf states can ramp up production from fields that were shut in during the conflict. Some wells can be restarted in days, but others require maintenance or pressure testing before they can flow at full capacity again.
Next steps
Vance did not give a timeline for when flows would reach pre-conflict levels. The coming weeks will show whether shipping insurance rates fall, whether tanker traffic returns to normal patterns, and whether any new incidents disrupt the reopening. Until those questions are answered, the Gulf's oil recovery remains a work in progress.
