AAVE is trading at $88.54 Thursday, hugging the lower edge of its Bollinger Bands as selling pressure shows signs of exhaustion. The token's price has stalled near a key technical level, with traders watching whether $87 support holds — or gives way.
The $87 floor that matters
That $87 mark isn't arbitrary. It's the lower boundary of the current Bollinger Band, a volatility indicator that's been tightening over recent sessions. When a price hugs that band and momentum flattens, it often sets up for a snap-back move. Right now, AAVE is doing exactly that. The bearish momentum that drove the price down over the past week appears to be losing steam, at least for the moment.
The technical picture isn't screaming recovery yet. But the pattern — a stall at support, a narrowing band — is one that experienced traders recognize. The question is whether buyers step in before sellers push through.
65% chance of a bounce to $95
If $87 support holds, there's a 65% probability AAVE bounces toward $95 in the near term, based on the token's recent price action and volatility profile. That's not a massive rally — about 7.5% from current levels — but it would break the recent string of lower highs that's kept the token under pressure.
A move to $95 would also put AAVE back above its 20-day moving average, a level it lost late last week. Reclaiming that line would shift the short-term bias from bearish to neutral, at least for now.
What a break below $87 means
A break below $87 support changes the picture entirely. In that scenario, the technical setup would trigger a deeper drop, with no clear floor until the next major support zone — which, based on recent trading ranges, sits well below current prices. The 65% bounce probability flips: the risk of a sharp sell-off becomes the dominant scenario.
The Bollinger Band pinch makes this a binary moment for the token. Either the compression resolves with a bullish pop, or it snaps lower. There's no gradual middle ground — the indicator's nature is to force a decisive move after a period of tightening.
The broader crypto market isn't offering much help. Bitcoin and Ethereum are both flat to slightly lower Thursday, providing no tailwind for altcoins. AAVE is largely on its own here, driven by its own technical dynamics.
For now, the $87 level is the line. Holders are watching it. Sellers are testing it. The next few sessions will likely decide which direction the token takes.
