Arbitrum's native token ARB has dropped to $0.09, and the technical picture isn't offering much hope for a quick rebound. The moving average convergence divergence (MACD) indicator is flat, signaling low momentum, while taker sell flow continues to outpace buyer flow — a sign that sellers are still in control.
What the charts show
The MACD line hovering near zero suggests traders aren't piling in with conviction. When the MACD is flat after a downtrend, it often means the market is catching its breath before another leg lower. That reading aligns with the order book data: aggressive sellers are consistently eating into bids, pushing the price down.
ARB has already lost roughly a third of its value from levels seen earlier this year. The token now sits at $0.09, a price that puts it within striking distance of its all-time low.
CoinCodex's year-end forecast
Price prediction platform CoinCodex sees ARB ending the year at $0.069 — a drop of more than 23% from current levels. That forecast is based on a 55% probability that the token drifts toward $0.074 in the near term before sliding further.
The $0.074 level is notable because it sits just above the token's record low. If selling pressure continues and the MACD stays flat, ARB could test that zone in the coming weeks.
What's driving the sell-off
Taker sell flow has been outpacing buyer flow consistently, meaning market participants are more willing to sell at the ask price than to buy at the bid. That imbalance typically pushes prices lower. Without a catalyst to flip the script — like a major protocol upgrade, a new partnership, or a broader market rally — the path of least resistance appears to be down.
Arbitrum itself remains one of the largest Ethereum layer-2 networks by total value locked, but token price action has decoupled from network activity. ARB holders have been hit by ongoing unlocks of tokens allocated to early investors and the Arbitrum Foundation, adding supply pressure.
What to watch next
For ARB to reverse course, buyers need to step in and absorb the sell flow. A break above the flat MACD would be the first bullish signal. Until then, the 55% probability of a drift toward $0.074 keeps the bears in the driver's seat. The next few weeks will show whether that level holds or becomes a stepping stone to even lower prices.
