Bitcoin surged past $66,800 on Friday, its strongest level in more than a month, as spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds logged seven straight trading days of inflows since July 14. Net inflows over that period reached $981.2 million, according to data tracked by GFdaily. The rally comes despite persistent headwinds that have kept professional traders cautious.
ETF buying streak meets professional caution
The seven-day inflow streak is the longest since early June and has helped push Bitcoin off its recent lows. But the Coinbase Premium Index — a gauge of institutional demand — has remained negative for more than 900 cumulative hours, the longest stretch in two years. That signals that the buying is coming largely from retail or offshore venues, not from the U.S. institutional desks that typically drive sustained rallies.
Analyst Darkfost attributed the professional caution to three factors: sticky inflation that refuses to fall below 3%, rising oil prices that add to cost pressures, and a less transparent Federal Reserve under its new chairman. “The Fed’s communication has become harder to read,” Darkfost wrote on X. “That uncertainty keeps big money on the sidelines.”
Two lenses on the bear market
Grayscale, the digital asset manager, outlined two frameworks for interpreting the current downturn. Under the four-year cycle view, further downside is likely, with a possible bottom in September or October. Under the macro asset view, the bottom arrives only when broader macroeconomic factors — inflation, interest rates, geopolitical risk — turn decisively favorable.
Glassnode, the on-chain analytics firm, stated plainly that this is still a bear-market rally until the market proves otherwise. Bitcoin currently trades below the Short-Term Holder Cost Basis near $69,000. That level acts as a resistance line: reclaim it on steady inflows and the path opens toward $84,000. Rejection sends price back toward the $63,000 demand shelf.
What comes next
The next test is whether ETF buying persists and whether professional caution eases. If the Coinbase Premium Index flips positive while inflows continue, the rally could have legs. If not, the $63,000 support zone will be the first line of defense. The Fed’s next policy meeting in late September looms as a potential catalyst — one way or the other.
