Bitcoin climbed above $65,000 this week, reclaiming a key level that traders had been watching for weeks. The move came as broader risk-on sentiment swept through markets, and it quickly fed into prediction markets: Polymarket odds for the Federal Reserve holding interest rates steady at the July meeting jumped to 93%.
Polymarket odds shift
Before the Bitcoin rally, the implied probability of a rate hold was sitting around 80%. The surge to 93% reflects a growing belief that the Fed won't tighten further as digital assets signal renewed appetite for risk. The data is drawn directly from Polymarket contracts, where traders have been piling into the "hold" side since the price broke through $65,000.
Tokens ride the wave
Not all tokens moved in lockstep, but two names stood out. VIRTUAL and UNI both held their gains during the broader market upswing, neither giving back ground even as Bitcoin stabilized above $65,000. For UNI, the strength is notable given the wider DeFi rally has been patchy this year. VIRTUAL, a newer entrant, continued to attract volume on decentralized exchanges.
What’s next for the Fed call
The Fed's July decision is still roughly a week away, and the higher odds of a hold don't guarantee one. But the Polymarket numbers are a real-time read on market sentiment, and right now the crowd is betting the central bank stays put. If Bitcoin pulls back, those odds could slip again — but the data is clear: the rally has shifted expectations.
